Will US Bomb Iran? A compelling analysis

US aircraft carrier Nimitz


Map of Persian Gulf


Iranian Fajr-3 missile

Tense situation.

The situation in the Persian Gulf is now very tense. US has two naval strike groups there ready to attack Iran. Iran is now in a state of preparedness for war. This stand-off cannot keep up indefinitely. Either Iran backs down and allow UN inspectors free access to dismantle its uranium enrichment facilities or US backs down and allows Iran to continue enriching uranium eventually to produce nuclear bombs.

Iran is most unlikely to back down unless force is used. US is also unlikely to back down. A nuclear-armed Iran would dramatically change the balance of power in the middle east and weaken US influence. It could also encourage other middle eastern nations to develop nuclear weapons of their own, further reducing US influence in this key region

Knowing the American public is in no mood for further foreign military adventures, Iran will call the bluff and continue to enrich uranium.

US climb-down?

The result of this would be viewed as a climb-down by US. This would encourage Iran to dominate the other Gulf states. Saudi Arabia is already making conciliatory moves toward Iran. US will eventually lose the confidence of the governments of the other Gulf states.

Iran has already categorically stated that all foreign powers should leave the Gulf. It would be a matter of time when the other Gulf states would ask US forces to leave. When US influence on the Gulf states is reduced, it would be highly probable that Iran would dictate a rise in the price of oil.

Even with the increased supply of alternative renewable source of energy like palm oil, most world economies still need to depend on fossil-derived fuel. A significant rise in the price of oil would hurt the economies of most nations except the Gulf states, Russia and Venezuela.

Meanwhile, Iran gets more wealthy enabling it to rapidly develop the nuclear bomb and the inter-continental ballistic missile.


Can Iran be a friend of US?

For US to accept Iran as a friend, Iran has to fulfill the following conditions.

1. Iran dismantle its uranium enrichment facilities and give a binding undertaking not to enrich uranium again.
2. Iran stop its production of heavy water and give a binding undertaking not to produce heavy water again.
3. Iran accept the legitimacy of Israel and stop all activities directly or indirectly harmful to Israel and the Jews.
4. Iran cease sponsoring international terrorism with funding, safe haven, training, and weapons.
5. Iran stop supporting Hizbullah in Lebanon and elsewhere.
6. Iran stop supporting Hamas.
7. Iran stop supporting Palestine Islamic Jihad, and the PFLP-GC
8. Iran stop supporting the anti-US insurgency in Iraq.
9. Iran stop supporting the anti-US insurgency in Afghanistan.
10. Iran stop supporting organizations which promote subversive activities among its neighboring states.
11. Iranian Government acknowledge its responsibility for its part in and make formal apology for its past misdeeds including the following:
11.1 The November 4, 1979 hostage taking of the American diplomatic mission in Tehran.
11.2 The April 18,1983 U.S. Embassy bombing in Beirut, Lebanon by Hizbullah which killed 17 Americans.
11.3 The October 23, 1983 Beirut barracks bombing which killed 241 U.S. peace keepers in Lebanon.
11.4 The June 25, 1996 Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia which killed 19 US servicemen.
11.5 Violations of human rights in Iran.

It is inconceivable for Iran to fulfill these conditions. Ever since the Iran-Iraq war, the leadership of Iran has vowed to resist any foreign interference.


Can US be a friend of Iran?

For Iran to accept US as a friend, US has to fulfill the following conditions.

1. US accept the legitimacy of the 1979 revolution and give an undertaking that it would not interfere with its internal affairs.
2. US deal with the government of Iran on the basis of ‘respect and equality”.
3. US lift economic sanctions imposed on Iran.
4. US release the remaining Iranian assets frozen in the US.
5. US remove its navy from the Persian Gulf.
6. US end its one-sided support for Israel.
7. US government make formal apology for its past misdeeds including the following:
Operation Ajax which overthrew the democratically chosen Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh and restored the exiled Shah.
Support for anti-Iranian terrorist organizations like the MKO.
Assistance of various US companies in helping Iraq to develop chemical weapons during the Iran-Iraq war.
USS Vincennes shooting down Iran Air Flight 655 with 290 civilians killed.
Damage to Iranian economy by US sanctions and political pressure.
Violating Iranian airspace by undertaking unmanned air vehicle UAV over-flights over Iran since 2003.
Its military presence in the neighboring countries of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Its human rights record.
Its use of weapons of mass destruction as a tool of war.

It is inconceivable for US to fulfill these conditions.

Iran, an existential threat to US.

Iran has missile manufacturing expertise. It has developed and manufactured medium range missiles (Shahab3D) capable of a range of 1,300 miles. It has developed a liquid fuel missile (Fajr-3) with greater range. It is a matter of time it will develop a satellite launching missile and an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). With ICBMs and nuclear bombs, Iran will rise to super power status and can threaten the very existence of US.

US cannot afford to let Iran produce the nuclear bomb. This is why President Bush is adamant in insisting that Iran dismantle its uranium enriching capacity.

Iran is determined to have the nuclear weapon. Up to now, Iran's strategy has been to stall for time. This has succeeded in allowing it achieve the capability of enriching uranium on an industrial scale. It will soon have the nuclear bomb.


All options are on the table.

President Bush has the unenviable task of choosing between two options.

The first is to continue to go through the United Nations to impose import sanctions against Iran. This is bound to fail because it has been proven unsuccessful in stopping North Korea from developing the nuclear bomb and testing it.

The other is to use force.

It appears that the attempts at persuading the UN to impose sanctions on Iran is to provide some semblance of legitimacy to the eventual use force. It also provides time for President Bush to persuade his NATO allies and the people of the US on the necessity of the use of force. It is likely that President Bush will commence a pre-emptive strike on Iran before the end of his term of office.


Ambitions of Iran.

Iran has been preparing for war ever since the last war with Iraq. Its policy is not to be caught unprepared again.

In taunting the US and Israel to attack, President Ahmadinejad actually wants US to bomb its nuclear facilities now. Precipitating US bombing now has various advantages for Iran.

It is probable that some of Iran's nuclear facilities are in secret locations elsewhere from the presently known locations. By bombing the known sites, US would not achieve its objective of ridding Iran of its uranium enriching capability.

Bombing gives Iran the legal and moral justification to retaliate against foreign aggression. In retaliating, it believes it has the opportunity of driving US forces from the Persian Gulf and the Jews from Israel.

During the hostilities, it can support internal revolution in the various states of the Gulf, eventually installing compliant governments.

If successful in these objectives, Iran would control most of the nations in the Middle East. This translates to control of 60% of the world's known oil reserves and control of pilgrimage by the world's population of Muslims to Mecca and Medina (Hajj).


Advantage of war to President Ahmadinejad.

Moreover, war would be advantageous for President Ahmadinejad because it would silence those people who criticize him for his poor handling of the economy. In the event of war, his opponents would have to support his leadership in the defense of Iran.

On the other hand, US and Israel are not about to give up the region without eventually using nuclear weapons. The question is whether Iran is adequately prepared for a nuclear attack by Israel or US.


Iran confident of its defensive capability.

Iran believes it has the ability of defending itself against attack from the air by missile, aircraft or bombs because in addition to its own extensive anti-missile defenses, it has recently acquired the advanced Tor-M1 surface to air anti-missile defense systems from Russia.


Recent developments.

On July 19, 2007, President Ahmadinejad made a brief visit to Damascus to meet President Bashar Assad of Syria to dissuade him from seeking peace with Israel in exchange for return of the Golan Heights. The Iranian leader also met Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizbullah and Khaled Mashaal, the leader of Hamas.

This meeting may be to co-ordinate efforts to confront Israel. President Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying “ We expect this summer’s temperature to rise with victories by the peoples of the region.” This is reminiscent of last year’s summer when Hizbullah denied Israel the victory it sought in invading southern Lebanon.

On July 28, 2007, a senior U S defense announced the preparation of a package of arms sales to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states that could be worth some $20 billion over the next 10 years. Moreover, with the passage of time, US will find ways of detecting Iran's stealth drones, stealth mini-submarines and stealth Fajr-3 missile This would reduce Iran's stealth advantage over the US fleet in the Gulf and make it more difficult for Iran to dominate the other Gulf states in the near future. Hence President Ahmadinejad's eagerness in wanting US or Israel to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities now.

Iran is taunting Israel and is spoiling for a fight. US is also spoiling for a fight especially with the statement of Vice President Dick Cheney warning Iran that force may be used to persuade it to stop uranium enrichment.



Will US bomb Iran?

From the above, it is likely that US will bomb Iran.

What will happen if hostilities break out?
Will Iran retaliate?
Will US prevail?
What will the Middle East look like after the dust has settled?